Halmstad 1-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Halmstad face IFK Goteborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Örjans Vall plays host to Halmstad versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Halmstad have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Halmstad against 1.50 for IFK Goteborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Halmstad, 1 for IFK Goteborg and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Halmstad 0–0 IFK Goteborg — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 52% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 58% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.43 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.957 / defence 0.950 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.961 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.485. Data: built from Halmstad's last 31 games and IFK Goteborg's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Halmstad 39% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.57 | Draw 3.94 | IFK Goteborg 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Halmstad at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Halmstad 40% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Halmstad 31 games, IFK Goteborg 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 2 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 39% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Halmstad 1.43 / IFK Goteborg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.957 / def 0.950 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.961 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.36
IFK Goteborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg?
Halmstad 1 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 39% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Halmstad and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Halmstad's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.96x) against Halmstad's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Halmstad's last 31 games and IFK Goteborg's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
39%
2.57
25%
3.94
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.78
1.36
IFK Goteborg xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Halmstad and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.36 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 26W 14D 20L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Halmstad against 1.32 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 10W 6D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Halmstad are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Halmstad (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Halmstad
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg Form FAQs
What form are Halmstad and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Halmstad's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.73 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Halmstad or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Halmstad and IFK Goteborg, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won Halmstad 0-3 IFK Goteborg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Halmstad
5
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Halmstad have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: IFK Goteborg 2-1 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 47%, IFK Goteborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Halmstad) and 53% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 27% of games; IFK Goteborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Halmstad and IFK Goteborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Halmstad's recent matches and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Halmstad and IFK Goteborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Halmstad's recent games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and IFK Goteborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Halmstad's recent matches and 70% of IFK Goteborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Halmstad edge out IFK Goteborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.43 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.36 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 39% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 36%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 58%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.53 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Halmstad win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.