Halmstad 0-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Örjans Vall plays host to Halmstad versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's home record at Örjans Vall: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Degerfors IF (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Halmstad, 0.90 for Degerfors IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Halmstad lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 51% versus Degerfors IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 60% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.39 xG and Degerfors IF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.675 / defence 1.194 | Degerfors IF attack 0.856 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.239. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Halmstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Halmstad games / 55 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 40% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 34%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Halmstad 30% | Degerfors IF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 40% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Halmstad 1.39 / Degerfors IF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.675 / def 1.194 | Degerfors IF attack 0.856 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Degerfors IF xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Halmstad 0 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF part of?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 40% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Halmstad and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): Halmstad 0W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.68x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.86x) against Halmstad's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.84
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.65
1.27
Degerfors IF xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.27 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad's recent record stands at 25W 10D 20L from 55 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 29L across 55 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Halmstad by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 14W 5D 8L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 4D 19L across 27 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 25W 10D 20L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Degerfors IF away?
Halmstad's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.74 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
4
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 48%, Degerfors IF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Halmstad) and 59% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 26% of games; Degerfors IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Halmstad's recent matches and 59% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Halmstad's matches and 59% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Halmstad and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Halmstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 26, as Halmstad and Degerfors IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.39 xG and Degerfors IF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Halmstad fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.68 / defence 1.19 against Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.43, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 40% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 34%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 60%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Halmstad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.