GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Kalmar FF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.05 xG and Kalmar FF 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.845 / defence 1.595 | Kalmar FF attack 1.323 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.142. Kalmar FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 2.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 GIF Sundsvall games / 33 Kalmar FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 15% | Draw 18% | Kalmar FF 67%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 6.67 | Draw 5.56 | Kalmar FF 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Kalmar FF (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 15% | Draw 18% | Kalmar FF 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 59% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.05 / Kalmar FF 2.41 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.845 / def 1.595 | Kalmar FF attack 1.323 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
2.41
Kalmar FF xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 15% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 67% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Kalmar FF away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.84x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 2.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.1%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
15%
6.76
18%
5.62
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.46
2.41
Kalmar FF xG
6.76
15%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
9%
11.12
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
1%
75.15
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 2.41 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kalmar FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Kalmar FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 0-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Kalmar FF 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.05 xG and Kalmar FF 2.41 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.59 against Kalmar FF attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 15% | Draw 18% | Kalmar FF 67%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.