GIF Sundsvall 2-5 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Djurgardens IF at NP3 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.848 / defence 1.366 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.720 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.074. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 GIF Sundsvall games / 41 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 37%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Djurgardens IF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.95 / Djurgardens IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.848 / def 1.366 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.720 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Djurgardens IF xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 5 Djurgardens IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 32% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Djurgardens IF away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
32%
3.16
31%
3.20
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.01
1.06
Djurgardens IF xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.06 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2022, when Djurgardens IF 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 2-5 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat GIF Sundsvall 2-5 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.06 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.72 / defence 0.76, drawn from 10/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 37%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.