Gais 2-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face Vasteras SK FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vasteras SK FK stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Gais have won 1, Vasteras SK FK 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Gais 1–2 Vasteras SK FK — a Vasteras SK FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.34 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.940 / defence 1.178 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.659 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.454. Vasteras SK FK's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Gais's last 7 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 7.
Result probabilities: Gais 42% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 31%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.40 | Draw 3.71 | Vasteras SK FK 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 42% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gais 1.34 / Vasteras SK FK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.940 / def 1.178 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.659 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Gais (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vasteras SK FK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Gais 2 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 42% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gais and Vasteras SK FK will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gais vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 7 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.71
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gais xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gais and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gais and 1.13 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Gais (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from April 2021. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gais have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Gais.
Gais's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Gais
0
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 4, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Vasteras SK FK 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.34 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.66 / defence 0.93, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 42% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 31%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.