Gais 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gais and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gais are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sirius are 0.50 PPG clear of Gais in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gais lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 46% versus Sirius 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 42% | Sirius 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.33 xG and Sirius 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.988 / defence 0.639 | Sirius attack 1.357 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.276. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Gais's defence rating of 0.639 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Gais games / 52 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 41% | Draw 28% | Sirius 31%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 20% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 41% | Draw 28% | Sirius 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Gais 1.33 / Sirius 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.988 / def 0.639 | Sirius attack 1.357 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Gais (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sirius xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Sirius kick off?
Gais vs Sirius kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Sirius?
Gais 0 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Gais vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Sirius part of?
Gais vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 41% chance of winning, Sirius a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gais and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Sirius?
Record (5 meetings): Gais 2W | Draws 0 | Sirius 3W.
What form are Gais and Sirius in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.36x) against Gais's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.56
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gais xG
Total xG
2.44
1.11
Sirius xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gais and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gais and 1.11 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 16D 14L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.73 PPG from 52 outings (27W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Gais against 1.73 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gais's home form reads 13W 8D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.69 points per game from 26 outings (13W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.02 scored and 1.52 conceded. Sirius's attacking output running into Gais's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 69%.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Sirius in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 22W 16D 14L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Sirius have gone 27W 9D 16L in their last 52 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Sirius away?
Gais's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.81 PPG; Sirius away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Gais or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sirius in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sirius have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Sirius?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Gais 0-1 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 38%, Sirius 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Gais) and 77% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Gais's games and 81% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 35% of Gais's matches and 77% of Sirius's.
Do Gais and Sirius tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sirius in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.33 xG and Sirius 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.99 / defence 0.64 against Sirius attack 1.36 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 41% | Draw 28% | Sirius 31%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 42%, Sirius 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.58 PPG, Sirius 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.