Falkenbergs FF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Malmo FF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Malmo FF travel to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to take on Falkenbergs FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2020, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's home record at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena: 0W 3D 3L from 6 Allsvenskan appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Malmo FF are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Falkenbergs FF register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Malmo FF in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 69% and Malmo FF 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 46% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.04 xG and Malmo FF 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.878 / defence 1.431 | Malmo FF attack 1.195 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.286. Data: 13 Falkenbergs FF games / 13 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 15% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 62%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Malmo FF 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 67% | Malmo FF 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 15% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.04 / Malmo FF 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.878 / def 1.431 | Malmo FF attack 1.195 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Malmo FF xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF?
Falkenbergs FF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 15% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
15%
6.51
22%
4.49
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.24
2.20
Malmo FF xG
6.51
15%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
11%
9.02
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
2%
58.70
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 2.20 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Falkenbergs FF come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 6D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Falkenbergs FF's home form reads 0W 3D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.92 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.15 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Malmo FF in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 0.50 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, Malmo FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2020, when Malmo FF 2-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Falkenbergs FF at 67%, Malmo FF at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Falkenbergs FF) and 67% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 67% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 67% of Malmo FF's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Falkenbergs FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Falkenbergs FF 0-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.04 xG and Malmo FF 2.20 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.43 against Malmo FF attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 15% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 62%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 46%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Malmo FF's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.