Djurgardens IF 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tele2 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tele2 Arena this season.
IFK Goteborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Djurgardens IF's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Djurgardens IF 3W, IFK Goteborg 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 44% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 48% | IFK Goteborg 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.882 / defence 0.818 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.924 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.326. Data: 46 Djurgardens IF games / 46 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 27%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Goteborg 3.70. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 20% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.42 / IFK Goteborg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.882 / def 0.818 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.924 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
IFK Goteborg xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 47% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (6 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.88) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.92x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.74
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
IFK Goteborg xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.00 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 26W 6D 14L from 46 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 20L across 46 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 15W 3D 5L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.11 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 26W 6D 14L in their last 46 games (1.83 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.09 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 6-0 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 6-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 30%, IFK Goteborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Djurgardens IF) and 48% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 48% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 48% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 27%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 48%, IFK Goteborg 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.