Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Djurgardens IF face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host IF Brommapojkarna at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 5D 0L at 3Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Djurgardens IF have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Djurgardens IF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for IF Brommapojkarna, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Djurgardens IF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus IF Brommapojkarna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 42% | IF Brommapojkarna 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.26 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.310 / defence 1.043 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.990 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.333. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Djurgardens IF games / 38 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 57% | Draw 20% | IF Brommapojkarna 22%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.75 | Draw 5.00 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | IF Brommapojkarna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 57% | Draw 20% | IF Brommapojkarna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.26 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.310 / def 1.043 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.990 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.38
IF Brommapojkarna xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 May 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 57% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (6 meetings): Djurgardens IF 6W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
57%
1.75
20%
4.88
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.63
1.38
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
10%
9.56
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
2%
42.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.38 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 29W 15D 16L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (14W 11D 5L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.43 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.77 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Djurgardens IF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 53%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Djurgardens IF) and 50% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Djurgardens IF's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Djurgardens IF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.26 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.38 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.31 / defence 1.04 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 57% | Draw 20% | IF Brommapojkarna 22%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a IF Brommapojkarna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 42%, IF Brommapojkarna 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with IF Brommapojkarna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.