Djurgardens IF 2-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 13 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BK Hacken trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus BK Hacken 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 55% | BK Hacken 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.67 xG and BK Hacken 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.313 / defence 0.738 | BK Hacken attack 1.089 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Djurgardens IF games / 42 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 18%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | BK Hacken 5.56. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.67 / BK Hacken 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.313 / def 0.738 | BK Hacken attack 1.089 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
BK Hacken xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 54% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.62
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.56
0.90
BK Hacken xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
3%
28.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.90 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 9D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.55 PPG from 42 outings (16W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.79 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (5W 12D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 16W 17D 9L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.95 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 52%, BK Hacken 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Djurgardens IF) and 33% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Djurgardens IF's games and 62% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 33% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out BK Hacken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.67 xG and BK Hacken 0.90 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.31 / defence 0.74 against BK Hacken attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 55%, BK Hacken 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.79 PPG, BK Hacken 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.