Djurgardens IF 3-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 August 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Tele2 Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 1L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.70 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 27% versus BK Hacken 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 46% | BK Hacken 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.66 xG and BK Hacken 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.094 / defence 1.030 | BK Hacken attack 0.780 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.194. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Djurgardens IF games / 11 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 22%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | BK Hacken 4.55. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 40% | BK Hacken 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.66 / BK Hacken 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.094 / def 1.030 | BK Hacken attack 0.780 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.96
BK Hacken xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 August 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 54% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.10
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.62
0.96
BK Hacken xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.96 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 2D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (4W 6D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.55 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.91 scored and 0.82 conceded. BK Hacken's attacking output running into Djurgardens IF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Djurgardens IF have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; BK Hacken in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 4W 6D 1L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.60 PPG; BK Hacken away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, BK Hacken 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Djurgardens IF and 60% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Djurgardens IF's games and 80% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 60% of BK Hacken's.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.66 xG and BK Hacken 0.96 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against BK Hacken attack 0.78 / defence 1.36, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 22%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 46%, BK Hacken 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.55 PPG, BK Hacken 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.