Degerfors IF 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Degerfors IF's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Mjallby AIF have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Mjallby AIF, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Degerfors IF 0–2 Mjallby AIF — a Mjallby AIF win.

Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | Mjallby AIF 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.173 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.970 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.284. Mjallby AIF bring a tight defence (rating 0.773, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Degerfors IF's projected output down. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 59 games and Mjallby AIF's last 59.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 49%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.05 | Draw 3.78 | Mjallby AIF 2.05. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Mjallby AIF 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 30% (last 10 away games).

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