Degerfors IF 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 0W 3D 7L at Stora Valla — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 3W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2025, ended 1–5 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 58% versus Djurgardens IF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Djurgardens IF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.461 / defence 1.105 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.103 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.350. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.461 is below the league average — the 0.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.685 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 Degerfors IF games / 55 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 10% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 67%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 10.00 | Draw 4.35 | Djurgardens IF 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Degerfors IF's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 40% | Djurgardens IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 10% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 30% | xG Degerfors IF 0.46 / Djurgardens IF 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.461 / def 1.105 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.103 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.46
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Djurgardens IF xG
30%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 10% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 67% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 3W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.46x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.10x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (16.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
10%
10.16
23%
4.30
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
16.6%
Away win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.46
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.10
1.65
Djurgardens IF xG
10.16
10%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
63%
1.58
Win to Nil
2%
52.71
42%
2.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.46 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.65 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 21W 14D 20L from 55 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 15L across 55 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.71 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 6D 11L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 14W 3D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.55 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 13D 15L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.33 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 52%, Djurgardens IF 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Degerfors IF) and 48% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 26% of games; Djurgardens IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 48% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.65 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.46 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.69, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 10% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 67%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Djurgardens IF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.40 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.