Degerfors IF 3-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Allsvenskan appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 36% versus BK Hacken 79%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 43% | BK Hacken 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.19 xG and BK Hacken 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.900 / defence 1.280 | BK Hacken attack 1.061 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.129. Data: 14 Degerfors IF games / 44 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 27% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 42%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | BK Hacken 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 33% | BK Hacken 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 27% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Degerfors IF 1.19 / BK Hacken 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.900 / def 1.280 | BK Hacken attack 1.061 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.53
BK Hacken xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Degerfors IF 3 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 27% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Degerfors IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
27%
3.76
31%
3.21
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.72
1.53
BK Hacken xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.53 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 3D 7L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken's form line: 5W 4D 5L from 14 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.07 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.64 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 79%.
Last 14 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.67 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, BK Hacken have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 33%, BK Hacken 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Degerfors IF) and 33% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Degerfors IF's games and 83% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 33% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat BK Hacken 3-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.19 xG and BK Hacken 1.53 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.28 against BK Hacken attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 27% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 42%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 43%, BK Hacken 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.07 PPG, BK Hacken 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.