BK Hacken 0-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 19 as BK Hacken welcome Mjallby AIF to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 6W 1D 3L at Bravida Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, BK Hacken have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 60% versus Mjallby AIF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 56% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.89 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.414 / defence 1.074 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.976 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.097. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 BK Hacken games / 48 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 53% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 21%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 4.76. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | Mjallby AIF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 53% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG BK Hacken 1.89 / Mjallby AIF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.414 / def 1.074 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.976 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Mjallby AIF xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
BK Hacken 0 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF part of?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 53% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.41) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.80
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.04
1.15
Mjallby AIF xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
3%
31.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.15 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 17D 13L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.31 PPG from 48 outings (16W 15D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.48 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 18W 17D 13L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Mjallby AIF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.91 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
1
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 56%, Mjallby AIF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (BK Hacken) and 48% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of BK Hacken's games and 56% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of BK Hacken's matches and 48% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at BK Hacken's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF finished level at 0-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.89 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.15 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.41 / defence 1.07 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 53% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 21%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 56%, Mjallby AIF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.48 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.