BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Nordic Wellness Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Nordic Wellness Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.40 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. BK Hacken register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 3 for IF Elfsborg and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 57% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 53% | IF Elfsborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 0.924 / defence 1.160 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.909 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 49 BK Hacken games / 49 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 32% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 40%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nordic Wellness Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 32% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG BK Hacken 1.20 / IF Elfsborg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 0.924 / def 1.160 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.909 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.38
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Nordic Wellness Arena.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Nordic Wellness Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 32% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Record (10 meetings): BK Hacken 4W | Draws 3 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (0.92) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.51
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.58
1.38
IF Elfsborg xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.38 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 15D 17L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 20W 11D 18L from 49 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.35 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.21 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 75%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (BK Hacken) and 50% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of BK Hacken's games and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of BK Hacken's matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.