AIK Stockholm 0-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Kalmar FF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 November 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 5W 0D 5L at Friends Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Friends Arena this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AIK Stockholm are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 32% versus Kalmar FF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 32% | Kalmar FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.17 xG and Kalmar FF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.799 / defence 0.894 | Kalmar FF attack 0.852 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.378. AIK Stockholm's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 AIK Stockholm games / 28 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 37% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 31%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Kalmar FF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 10% | Kalmar FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 37% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.17 / Kalmar FF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.799 / def 0.894 | Kalmar FF attack 0.852 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kalmar FF xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 November 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 37% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (0.80) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.12
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.22
1.05
Kalmar FF xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.05 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 10W 8D 10L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 5W 9D 14L from 28 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.04 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 5W 9D 14L in their last 28 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Kalmar FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.43 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.14 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 29%, Kalmar FF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (AIK Stockholm) and 57% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 57% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 57% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.17 xG and Kalmar FF 1.05 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.80 / defence 0.89 against Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 37% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 31%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 32%, Kalmar FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Kalmar FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.