AIK Stockholm 2-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AIK Stockholm welcome IF Elfsborg to Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AIK Stockholm have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, AIK Stockholm have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Elfsborg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
IF Elfsborg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for AIK Stockholm.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF Elfsborg — a AIK Stockholm win.
The H2H data backs the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus IF Elfsborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | IF Elfsborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.57 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.145 / defence 1.044 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.966 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.267. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 35 games and IF Elfsborg's last 35.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 31%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.26 | Draw 4.04 | IF Elfsborg 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but AIK Stockholm carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 6 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.57 / IF Elfsborg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.145 / def 1.044 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.966 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.28
IF Elfsborg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 44% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 35 games and IF Elfsborg's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.04
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.85
1.28
IF Elfsborg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.28 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 33W 10D 17L across 60 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.50 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 16W 7D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 14W 4D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.85 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IF Elfsborg away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.83 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.53 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won IF Elfsborg 6-1 AIK Stockholm.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: AIK Stockholm 2-2 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AIK Stockholm) and 60% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 70% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 2-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.57 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 31%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.