Villarreal 2-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Villarreal at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Ceramica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio de la Ceramica — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.20 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Valencia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 61% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 61% | Valencia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.08 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.261 / defence 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.959 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.129. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Villarreal games / 62 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Valencia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Villarreal 2.08 / Valencia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.261 / def 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.959 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Valencia xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 2 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 61% chance of winning, Valencia a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Record (9 meetings): Villarreal 4W | Draws 3 | Valencia 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in?
Villarreal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.47
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.10
1.02
Valencia xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
47.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.02 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 13D 14L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (17W 21D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Valencia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 18W 8D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (4W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 35W 13D 14L in their last 62 games (1.90 PPG), while Valencia have gone 17W 21D 24L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Valencia away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Valencia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 61%, Valencia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Villarreal) and 48% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valencia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Villarreal's games and 61% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Villarreal's matches and 48% of Valencia's.
Do Villarreal and Valencia tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Valencia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Valencia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.08 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 61%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.