Villarreal 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Villarreal and Osasuna meet at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 2W 5D 0L across 7 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.57 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.43 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 7 games (71%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Cerámica. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.57 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Cerámica than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 1.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.57 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 29% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 29% | Osasuna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.62 xG and Osasuna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.247 / defence 0.974 | Osasuna attack 1.363 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 0.911. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Osasuna have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Villarreal games / 8 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Osasuna 3.57. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 33% | Osasuna 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Villarreal 1.62 / Osasuna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.247 / def 0.974 | Osasuna attack 1.363 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.003 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Osasuna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Osasuna kick off?
Villarreal vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Villarreal 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Villarreal vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Osasuna part of?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 46% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in?
Villarreal (all comps): 2W-5D-0L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.43 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.25) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.36x) against Villarreal's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.80
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.83
1.21
Osasuna xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.21 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 5D 0L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Villarreal against 1.86 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Villarreal's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.86 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games; Osasuna in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 2W 5D 0L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.33 PPG; Osasuna away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Osasuna in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Osasuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 33%, Osasuna 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Villarreal) and 67% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Osasuna in 33%; Villarreal have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Villarreal's recent matches and 67% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Villarreal's recent games and 67% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Osasuna tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Villarreal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Villarreal 1-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.62 xG and Osasuna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Osasuna attack 1.36 / defence 1.29, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 29%, Osasuna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.57 PPG, Osasuna 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.