Villarreal 5-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Espanyol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Villarreal host Espanyol at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Cerámica.
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Villarreal are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 0, Espanyol 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Villarreal in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Espanyol in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 44% versus Espanyol 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 48% | Espanyol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.02 xG and Espanyol 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.323 / defence 1.014 | Espanyol attack 0.824 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.161. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Villarreal games / 25 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 17%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Espanyol 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Espanyol 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Villarreal 2.02 / Espanyol 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.323 / def 1.014 | Espanyol attack 0.824 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Espanyol xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Espanyol kick off?
Villarreal vs Espanyol kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Villarreal 5 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Villarreal vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Espanyol part of?
Villarreal vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 61% chance of winning, Espanyol a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Villarreal and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Villarreal 0W | Draws 1 | Espanyol 0W.
What form are Villarreal and Espanyol in?
Villarreal (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.32) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.40
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.99
0.97
Espanyol xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
45.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.97 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal's recent record stands at 10W 9D 6L from 25 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 10L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Espanyol heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Espanyol's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol in 60%.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 10W 9D 6L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Espanyol away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Espanyol in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Villarreal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Villarreal
1
Draws
0
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 7, Espanyol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Villarreal 4-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Espanyol?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 50%, Espanyol 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Villarreal and 58% for Espanyol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Espanyol in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Villarreal's recent matches and 58% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Villarreal's matches and 58% of Espanyol's.
Do Villarreal and Espanyol tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Espanyol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Espanyol 5-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.02 xG and Espanyol 0.97 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against Espanyol attack 0.82 / defence 1.35, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 61% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 17%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 48%, Espanyol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Espanyol's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.42 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.