Villarreal 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Villarreal face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alaves travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal in La Liga (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Villarreal's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Villarreal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 9 matches, Alaves stand at 2W 2D 5L — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings (11%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Alaves's away record over their last 4 away games: 0W 1D 3L (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Villarreal) versus 0.89 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Villarreal, 1 for Alaves and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2022, ended Villarreal 1–2 Alaves — a Alaves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Villarreal trading profile (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Alaves trading profile (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 78% versus Alaves 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Villarreal 67% | Alaves 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.76 xG and Alaves 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.033 / defence 1.293 | Alaves attack 0.610 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.209. Alaves's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.293 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Villarreal's last 47 games and Alaves's last 9.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 55% | Draw 25% | Alaves 19%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.80 | Draw 3.98 | Alaves 5.14. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 4 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 90% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 25% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 55% | Draw 25% | Alaves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Villarreal 1.76 / Alaves 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.033 / def 1.293 | Alaves attack 0.610 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Alaves xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Alaves kick off?
Villarreal vs Alaves kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Alaves?
Villarreal 1 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Villarreal vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Alaves part of?
Villarreal vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 55% chance of winning, Alaves a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Villarreal and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Villarreal vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.03x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 47 games and Alaves's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
55%
1.80
25%
3.98
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.71
0.95
Alaves xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
3%
29.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.95 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Villarreal have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Alaves's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 0.89 PPG, Alaves on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Villarreal have posted 0.75 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 0W 1D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Villarreal (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Villarreal vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Alaves in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Alaves have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Alaves away?
Villarreal's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 0.75 PPG; Alaves away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won Villarreal 5-2 Alaves.
Villarreal's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Villarreal
3
Draws
3
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 3, Alaves have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 100%, Alaves 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Villarreal) and 0% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Alaves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Villarreal's games and 25% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Villarreal and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Villarreal's recent games and 0% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Villarreal's recent matches and 75% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 10, as Villarreal and Alaves drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.76 xG and Alaves 0.95 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against Alaves attack 0.61 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 55% | Draw 25% | Alaves 19%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Alaves 11%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 0.89 PPG, Alaves 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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