Valladolid 0-3 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valladolid and Sevilla meet at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valladolid's home record at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sevilla (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Sevilla have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sevilla are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Valladolid, 0 for Sevilla and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 42% versus Sevilla 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 54% | Sevilla 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.31 xG and Sevilla 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.904 / defence 1.454 | Sevilla attack 1.063 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.045. Data: 33 Valladolid games / 71 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 24% | Sevilla 45%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Sevilla 2.22. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 50% | Sevilla 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 24% | Sevilla 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Valladolid 1.31 / Sevilla 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.904 / def 1.454 | Sevilla attack 1.063 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Sevilla xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Sevilla kick off?
Valladolid vs Sevilla kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Sevilla?
Valladolid 0 - 3 Sevilla.
Where is Valladolid vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Sevilla part of?
Valladolid vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 31% chance of winning, Sevilla a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Valladolid and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Sevilla?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 1 | Sevilla 0W.
What form are Valladolid and Sevilla in?
Valladolid (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sevilla (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valladolid's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (1.06x) against Valladolid's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
31%
3.22
24%
4.11
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.93
1.61
Sevilla xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
6%
16.18
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.61 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valladolid come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 5D 18L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (12W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Valladolid against 1.33 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valladolid's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 61%.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Current Season
Sevilla
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 10W 5D 18L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Sevilla away?
Valladolid's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.50 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sevilla have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sevilla won 0-4 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Sevilla have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Valladolid 0-4 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 38%, Sevilla 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Valladolid) and 44% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Valladolid's recent matches and 62% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Valladolid's recent games and 44% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Sevilla tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sevilla run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Valladolid 0-3 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.31 xG and Sevilla 1.61 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sevilla outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.90 / defence 1.45 against Sevilla attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 31% | Draw 24% | Sevilla 45%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 54%, Sevilla 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.06 PPG, Sevilla 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.