Valencia 3-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valencia face Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Villarreal at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 January 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Valencia — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Valencia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valencia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Villarreal have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valencia at 1.30 PPG versus Villarreal's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Valencia, 2 for Villarreal and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2023, ended Valencia 1–1 Villarreal — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valencia in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 48% versus Villarreal 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Villarreal 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.43 xG and Villarreal 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.853 / defence 0.747 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.119. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Valencia have a tight defence (rating 0.747), which is pulling Villarreal's projected output down. Data: built from Valencia's last 56 games and Villarreal's last 56.
Result probabilities: Valencia 48% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 20%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.08 | Draw 3.15 | Villarreal 4.94. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 30% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 January 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 48% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Valencia 1.43 / Villarreal 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.853 / def 0.747 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Valencia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Villarreal xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Villarreal kick off?
Valencia vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 2 January 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia 3 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Valencia vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Villarreal part of?
Valencia vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 48% chance of winning, Villarreal a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valencia and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Valencia vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.85) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 56 games and Villarreal's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.15
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.29
0.86
Villarreal xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
20.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Valencia and 0.86 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 14D 25L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 24W 11D 21L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.16 PPG, Villarreal on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 9W 7D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valencia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.52 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
Valencia (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Valencia vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Villarreal away?
Valencia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.59 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Villarreal have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Valencia's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valencia
3
Draws
6
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 1, Villarreal have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Valencia 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 41%, Villarreal 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Valencia) and 48% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Villarreal in 33%; Villarreal in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Villarreal matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Valencia's recent matches and 52% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Valencia's recent games and 48% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Villarreal 3-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.43 xG and Villarreal 0.86 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.85 / defence 0.75 against Villarreal attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 48% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 20%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Villarreal 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.16 PPG, Villarreal 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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