Valencia 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Alaves have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Valencia, 0.60 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valencia lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 44% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 43% | Alaves 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.80 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.045 / defence 1.084 | Alaves attack 0.931 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.147. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Valencia games / 55 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 52% | Draw 23% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Alaves 4.17. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Alaves 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 52% | Draw 23% | Alaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Valencia 1.80 / Alaves 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.045 / def 1.084 | Alaves attack 0.931 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Valencia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Alaves xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Alaves kick off?
Valencia vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Valencia 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Valencia vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Alaves part of?
Valencia vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 52% chance of winning, Alaves a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Valencia and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 3W.
What form are Valencia and Alaves in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.93x) against Valencia's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.32
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.96
1.16
Alaves xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Valencia and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Valencia and 1.16 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 15D 24L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.15 PPG from 54 outings (16W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Valencia against 1.15 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valencia's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (4W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Alaves in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 15W 15D 24L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Alaves have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Alaves away?
Valencia's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.46 PPG; Alaves away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Valencia
2
Draws
4
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Alaves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 42%, Alaves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Valencia) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 31% of games; Alaves in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valencia's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Alaves tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Alaves in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Alaves finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.80 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Alaves attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 52% | Draw 23% | Alaves 24%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.11 PPG, Alaves 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.