Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sevilla (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sevilla face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sevilla have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cadiz (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cadiz's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Sevilla. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sevilla have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Cadiz managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Sevilla 2–2 Cadiz — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Sevilla an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Sevilla — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 60% versus Cadiz 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 51% | Cadiz 27%). Note also that Cadiz surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Sevilla recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.84 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.095 / defence 1.130 | Cadiz attack 0.675 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.090. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Sevilla's last 73 games and Cadiz's last 73.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 61% | Draw 22% | Cadiz 16%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.63 | Draw 4.48 | Cadiz 6.07. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sevilla 60% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 36 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 61% | Draw 22% | Cadiz 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sevilla 1.84 / Cadiz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.095 / def 1.130 | Cadiz attack 0.675 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Cadiz kick off?
Sevilla vs Cadiz kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Sevilla 0 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Sevilla vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Cadiz part of?
Sevilla vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 36) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 61% chance of winning, Cadiz a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sevilla and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sevilla vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.68x) against Sevilla's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 73 games and Cadiz's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.48
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.67
0.83
Cadiz xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
38.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.83 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sevilla come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 21D 29L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.97 PPG from 73 outings (15W 26D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sevilla against 0.97 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sevilla's home form reads 13W 10D 13L across their last 36 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.58 points per game from their last 36 away games (3W 12D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sevilla are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.74 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
Sevilla (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Sevilla vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 23W 21D 29L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 15W 26D 32L in their last 73 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Cadiz away?
Sevilla's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.36 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Sevilla and Cadiz, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sevilla
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 3, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2024: Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 64%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sevilla) and 25% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sevilla's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sevilla and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sevilla's recent games and 25% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Sevilla's recent matches and 53% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Sevilla 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Sevilla 0-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.84 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sevilla fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Cadiz attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 61% | Draw 22% | Cadiz 16%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 51%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.23 PPG, Cadiz 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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