Real Sociedad 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Real Sociedad take on Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Osasuna travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Real Sociedad — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Reale Arena, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Real Sociedad are significantly better at Reale Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Sociedad at 0.90 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Real Sociedad's 20% and Osasuna's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Real Sociedad have won 1, Osasuna 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Real Sociedad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Real Sociedad 29% | Osasuna 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 25% | Osasuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 0.75 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.737 / defence 0.891 | Osasuna attack 0.887 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.158. Real Sociedad's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Real Sociedad games / 25 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 27% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 36%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Osasuna 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Real Sociedad's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 20% | Osasuna 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 27% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Real Sociedad 0.75 / Osasuna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.737 / def 0.891 | Osasuna attack 0.887 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osasuna xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna part of?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 27% chance of winning, Osasuna a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Real Sociedad and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Real Sociedad 1W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Sociedad's attack at 0.74x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.69
37%
2.72
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
1.67
0.92
Osasuna xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.92 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Real Sociedad have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 10W 8D 6L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Sociedad on 1.58 PPG, Osasuna on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Sociedad have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 6W 2D 4L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.04 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Sociedad have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games; Osasuna in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 games (1.58 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Osasuna away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.83 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Osasuna in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 6, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Real Sociedad 17% BTTS, Osasuna 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Real Sociedad and 33% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Osasuna in 42%; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 25% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 33% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 1-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 0.75 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 27% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 25%, Osasuna 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.58 PPG, Osasuna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.