Real Madrid 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu plays host to Real Madrid versus Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Real Madrid (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Real Madrid. A 1.00 PPG lead over Granada CF (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Real Madrid 1W, Granada CF 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 4–1 with Real Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Real Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Real Madrid 64% and Granada CF 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 64% | Granada CF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 1.81 xG and Granada CF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.251 / defence 0.968 | Granada CF attack 0.833 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.112. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Real Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Real Madrid games / 22 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 58% | Draw 25% | Granada CF 17%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Granada CF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Real Madrid 50% | Granada CF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 58% | Draw 25% | Granada CF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Real Madrid 1.81 / Granada CF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.251 / def 0.968 | Granada CF attack 0.833 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Granada CF xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Granada CF kick off?
Real Madrid vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Granada CF?
Real Madrid 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Real Madrid vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Granada CF part of?
Real Madrid vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 58% chance of winning, Granada CF a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Real Madrid and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Real Madrid 1W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Granada CF in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Granada CF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Real Madrid's attack at 1.25x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.83x) against Real Madrid's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
58%
1.74
25%
3.92
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
2.71
0.90
Granada CF xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
36.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.90 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Real Madrid have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 15W 5D 2L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF's form line: 5W 9D 8L from 22 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Real Madrid have posted 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (7W 4D 0L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 1W 6D 4L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Madrid are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.18 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Granada CF in 64%.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 15W 5D 2L in their last 22 games (2.27 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Granada CF away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.27 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Granada CF in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Madrid have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Real Madrid
0
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 4, Granada CF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Granada CF 0-4 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Granada CF?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 54%, Granada CF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Real Madrid) and 36% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Real Madrid have failed to score in 27% of games; Granada CF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 46% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Real Madrid's recent games and 36% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Granada CF tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.81 xG and Granada CF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Madrid fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Granada CF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Granada CF attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 58% | Draw 25% | Granada CF 17%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 64%, Granada CF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Granada CF's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.