Real Betis 3-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio Benito Villamarín to face Real Betis in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Real Betis (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Real Betis have gone 3W 2D 2L this season (7 games, 1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levante have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levante have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Real Betis. A 1.50 PPG lead over Levante (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Real Betis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 50% versus Levante 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 50% | Levante 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 2.02 xG and Levante 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.211 / defence 1.304 | Levante attack 0.801 / defence 1.623. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.153. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.623 — this is suppressing Real Betis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Real Betis games / 14 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 55% | Draw 24% | Levante 21%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 57% | Levante 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 55% | Draw 24% | Levante 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Real Betis 2.02 / Levante 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.211 / def 1.304 | Levante attack 0.801 / def 1.623 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Levante xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Levante kick off?
Real Betis vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Levante?
Real Betis 3 - 1 Levante.
Where is Real Betis vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Levante part of?
Real Betis vs Levante is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 55% chance of winning, Levante a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Real Betis and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Betis and Levante in?
Real Betis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Real Betis's attack at 1.21x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.80x) against Real Betis's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.21
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Real Betis xG
Total xG
3.23
1.21
Levante xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
3%
35.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.21 for Levante, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 3D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.50 PPG from 14 outings (0W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Real Betis's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 0.86 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Levante in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 7D 7L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Levante away?
Real Betis's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.57 PPG; Levante away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Real Betis
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 3, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Real Betis 2-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Levante?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 57%, Levante 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Real Betis) and 43% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Real Betis have failed to score in 29% of games; Levante in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Real Betis's games and 57% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Betis vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Real Betis's recent games and 43% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Levante tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levante in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Levante 3-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 2.02 xG and Levante 1.21 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.21 / defence 1.30 against Levante attack 0.80 / defence 1.62, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 55% | Draw 24% | Levante 21%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 50%, Levante 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.