Oviedo 0-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oviedo vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oviedo and Alaves meet at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oviedo's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Oviedo's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Alaves have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Oviedo, 1.30 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Oviedo, 0 for Alaves and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Oviedo — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oviedo 33% versus Alaves 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oviedo 39% | Alaves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oviedo 0.97 xG and Alaves 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oviedo attack 0.556 / defence 0.886 | Alaves attack 1.083 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Oviedo's attack strength of 0.556 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Oviedo games / 74 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oviedo 32% | Draw 30% | Alaves 38%. Fair-value odds: Oviedo 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Oviedo 40% | Alaves 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oviedo vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oviedo 32% | Draw 30% | Alaves 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Oviedo 0.97 / Alaves 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Oviedo attack 0.556 / def 0.886 | Alaves attack 1.083 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Alaves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Oviedo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Alaves xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oviedo vs Alaves kick off?
Oviedo vs Alaves kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What was the final score in Oviedo vs Alaves?
Oviedo 0 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Oviedo vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What competition is Oviedo vs Alaves part of?
Oviedo vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Oviedo vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Oviedo a 32% chance of winning, Alaves a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oviedo vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Oviedo and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Oviedo vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Oviedo 0W | Draws 1 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Oviedo and Alaves in?
Oviedo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oviedo's attack at 0.56x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (1.08x) against Oviedo's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.32
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Oviedo xG
Total xG
2.07
1.10
Alaves xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oviedo vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Oviedo and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Oviedo and 1.10 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Oviedo vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oviedo come into this having played 36 games, going 6W 11D 19L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.11 PPG from 36 outings (10W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Oviedo against 1.11 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Oviedo's home form reads 4W 7D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Oviedo are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 64%.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oviedo
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oviedo and Alaves in coming into this match?
Oviedo have gone 6W 11D 19L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while Alaves have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oviedo at home or Alaves away?
Oviedo's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oviedo at home: 1.06 PPG; Alaves away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oviedo
1
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Alaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Oviedo have won 0, Alaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oviedo and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Oviedo 0-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Oviedo and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oviedo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oviedo 28%, Alaves 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Oviedo and 44% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Oviedo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Oviedo have failed to score in 50% of games; Alaves in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oviedo home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oviedo play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Oviedo's recent matches and 56% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oviedo vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Oviedo's recent games and 44% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Oviedo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Oviedo 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.97 xG and Alaves 1.10 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oviedo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.56 / defence 0.89 against Alaves attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oviedo 32% | Draw 30% | Alaves 38%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 39%, Alaves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oviedo's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alaves's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oviedo 0.81 PPG, Alaves 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.