Osasuna vs Valencia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Valencia travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.10 PPG, Valencia 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Osasuna, 5 for Valencia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valencia trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Valencia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Valencia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.09 xG and Valencia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.710 / defence 0.936 | Valencia attack 0.919 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Osasuna games / 47 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 34% | Draw 33% | Valencia 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Valencia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 60% | Valencia 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 34% | Draw 33% | Valencia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Osasuna 1.09 / Valencia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.710 / def 0.936 | Valencia attack 0.919 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Valencia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Valencia kick off?
Osasuna vs Valencia is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 May 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Valencia part of?
Osasuna vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 34% chance of winning, Valencia a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osasuna and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 3W | Draws 2 | Valencia 5W.
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Valencia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.71) and Valencia's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
34%
2.95
33%
3.06
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.17
1.08
Valencia xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.08 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 47 games, going 14W 11D 22L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.17 PPG from 47 outings (14W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.13 PPG, Valencia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 10W 7D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.11 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Valencia have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Valencia away?
Osasuna's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.61 PPG; Valencia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Valencia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 65%, Valencia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Osasuna) and 48% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Valencia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Osasuna's games and 48% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Osasuna's recent games and 48% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Valencia tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Valencia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.