Osasuna 2-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Elche make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osasuna have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 3W 1D 6L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Elche (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Elche have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Osasuna, 0.80 for Elche — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Osasuna 0W, Elche 0W, 3D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 40% versus Elche 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 32% | Elche 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.13 xG and Elche 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.668 / defence 1.101 | Elche attack 0.783 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.002. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Osasuna games / 65 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Elche 28%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Elche 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 20% | Elche 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Elche 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Osasuna 1.13 / Elche 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.668 / def 1.101 | Elche attack 0.783 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Elche xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Elche kick off?
Osasuna vs Elche kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Elche?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Elche.
Where is Osasuna vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Elche part of?
Osasuna vs Elche is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Elche a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Osasuna and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Elche?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 3 | Elche 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Elche in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Elche (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.67) and Elche's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.78x) against Osasuna's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.28
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.00
0.86
Elche xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.86 for Elche, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 21W 19D 25L from 65 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 36L across 65 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Elche heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 8D 13L from 32 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Elche's away record stands at 5W 6D 21L across 32 trips, a 0.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.91 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Elche in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Elche have gone 13W 16D 36L in their last 65 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Elche away?
Osasuna's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.28 PPG; Elche away: 0.66 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Elche in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Elche — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Osasuna
5
Draws
0
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Elche have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Elche 0-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Elche?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 41%, Elche 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 59% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 34% of games; Elche in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Osasuna's recent matches and 44% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 59% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Elche tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Elche in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Elche 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Elche 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.13 xG and Elche 0.86 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.67 / defence 1.10 against Elche attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Elche 28%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 32%, Elche 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Elche's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.