Osasuna 1-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 38%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Elche make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 29 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osasuna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 1W 3D 3L at Estadio El Sadar — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.86 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio El Sadar this season.
Elche (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Elche have posted 1W 1D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Osasuna's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Elche 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 36% | Elche 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.97 xG and Elche 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.687 / defence 1.289 | Elche attack 0.753 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.167. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Osasuna games / 14 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 30% | Draw 32% | Elche 38%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Elche 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 43% | Elche 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 30% | Draw 32% | Elche 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Osasuna 0.97 / Elche 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.687 / def 1.289 | Elche attack 0.753 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Elche (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Elche xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Elche kick off?
Osasuna vs Elche kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Elche?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Elche.
Where is Osasuna vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Elche part of?
Osasuna vs Elche is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 30% chance of winning, Elche a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osasuna and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Elche?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Elche in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Elche (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.69) and Elche's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.75x) against Osasuna's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
30%
3.37
32%
3.08
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.11
1.13
Elche xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.13 for Elche, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 5W 4D 5L from 14 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 7L across 14 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Elche heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.36 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Elche's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.79 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Elche in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Elche have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Elche away?
Osasuna's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.86 PPG; Elche away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Elche in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Elche — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Osasuna
5
Draws
0
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Elche have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Elche 0-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Elche?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Elche see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 43%, Elche 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Osasuna) and 43% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 43% of games; Elche in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Osasuna's recent matches and 43% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Osasuna's recent games and 43% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Osasuna and Elche share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Elche finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.97 xG and Elche 1.13 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.69 / defence 1.29 against Elche attack 0.75 / defence 1.36, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 30% | Draw 32% | Elche 38%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Elche 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Elche's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.