Osasuna 0-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 6W 0D 4L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.50 (Atletico Madrid). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Osasuna, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Atletico Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 34% | Atletico Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.08 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.964 / defence 0.954 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.141 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 0.988. Data: 56 Osasuna games / 56 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 35%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Madrid 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Atletico Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Osasuna 1.08 / Atletico Madrid 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.964 / def 0.954 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.141 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.274 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Atletico Madrid xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Osasuna 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.96x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.39
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.16
1.08
Atletico Madrid xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.08 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 15D 21L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.82 PPG from 56 outings (30W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 11W 7D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.64 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 56 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 30W 12D 14L in their last 56 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.43 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Atletico Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 46%, Atletico Madrid 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 57% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Osasuna's recent matches and 57% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 57% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Madrid defy the odds to beat Osasuna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 0-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.08 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.08 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 35% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 35%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 34%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.