Osasuna 0-2 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 7). Kick-off is Thursday 28 September 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Osasuna have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Atletico Madrid have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Atletico Madrid have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Osasuna. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Osasuna 0–3 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Atletico Madrid 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 37% | Atletico Madrid 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.05 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.740 / defence 0.957 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.320 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.206. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.320, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Osasuna's last 44 games and Atletico Madrid's last 43.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 47%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.96 | Draw 3.65 | Atletico Madrid 2.11. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 7 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Thursday 28 September 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Osasuna 1.05 / Atletico Madrid 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.740 / def 0.957 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.320 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Atletico Madrid xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 7) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 25% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.74x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 44 games and Atletico Madrid's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
25%
3.96
27%
3.65
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.57
1.52
Atletico Madrid xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.52 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 9D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 2.02 PPG from 43 outings (26W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 10W 2D 9L across their last 21 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.71 points per game from their last 21 away games (10W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.93 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Atletico Madrid
Early Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Early Season
Atletico Madrid
Early Season
❓ Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 26W 9D 8L in their last 43 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.52 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2026, when Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Osasuna's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 38%, Atletico Madrid 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Osasuna) and 38% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 38%; Osasuna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Osasuna's recent matches and 43% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Osasuna's recent games and 38% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Osasuna's recent matches and 62% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.05 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.52 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 47%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 37%, Atletico Madrid 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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