Mallorca 1-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Real Betis travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Betis have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Betis are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Real Betis, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Mallorca.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Real Betis winning.
It is worth noting that Real Betis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 56% and Real Betis 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 49% | Real Betis 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.77 xG and Real Betis 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.205 / defence 1.121 | Real Betis attack 1.031 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.132. Data: 61 Mallorca games / 61 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 27%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Real Betis 3.70. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Betis (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 80% | Real Betis 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Mallorca 1.77 / Real Betis 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.205 / def 1.121 | Real Betis attack 1.031 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Real Betis xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Betis kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Betis kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Mallorca 1 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Betis part of?
Mallorca vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 47% chance of winning, Real Betis a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mallorca and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Betis?
Record (9 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 7W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Betis in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Real Betis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.21) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.86
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Mallorca xG
Total xG
3.08
1.31
Real Betis xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.31 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 15D 27L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis's form line: 26W 20D 15L from 61 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 10W 11D 9L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.54 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 67%.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 games (1.18 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 26W 20D 15L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Betis away?
Mallorca's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.53 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Real Betis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Real Betis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mallorca
1
Draws
8
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Real Betis have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Mallorca 1-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mallorca at 67%, Real Betis at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mallorca) and 50% (Real Betis).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mallorca's games and 73% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mallorca's recent games and 50% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Betis tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.77 xG and Real Betis 1.31 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against Real Betis attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 49%, Real Betis 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.