Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Granada CF travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mallorca at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mallorca at 0.90 PPG versus Granada CF's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Granada CF, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Mallorca.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Granada CF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Granada CF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 6.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Granada CF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 30% | Granada CF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.83 xG and Granada CF 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.836 / defence 0.886 | Granada CF attack 0.810 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.110. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.510 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Mallorca games / 27 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 60% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 14%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Granada CF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Mallorca (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 6.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Granada CF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 60% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Mallorca 1.83 / Granada CF 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.836 / def 0.886 | Granada CF attack 0.810 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Granada CF xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Granada CF kick off?
Mallorca vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Mallorca vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Granada CF part of?
Mallorca vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 60% chance of winning, Granada CF a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mallorca and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Granada CF in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.84
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.62
0.80
Granada CF xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
44.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.80 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 11D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.52 PPG from 27 outings (2W 8D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mallorca's home form reads 4W 7D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.15 points per game from 13 outings (0W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.11 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 5W 11D 11L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 8D 17L in their last 27 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Granada CF away?
Mallorca's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.46 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Granada CF won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
0
Draws
3
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Granada CF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Granada CF?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 54%, Granada CF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 46% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 31% of games; Granada CF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Mallorca's recent matches and 46% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 46% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Granada CF tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.83 xG and Granada CF 0.80 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Granada CF attack 0.81 / defence 1.51, drawn from 66/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 60% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 14%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 30%, Granada CF 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 0.96 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.