Mallorca 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Girona travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Visit Mallorca Estadi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.40 PPG, Girona 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Mallorca 33% | Girona 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Girona 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.37 xG and Girona 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.020 / defence 1.174 | Girona attack 0.724 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.195. Data: 41 Mallorca games / 3 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 27% | Girona 28%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Girona 3.57. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 60% | Girona 33%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 27% | Girona 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Mallorca 1.37 / Girona 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.020 / def 1.174 | Girona attack 0.724 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Girona xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Girona kick off?
Mallorca vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Mallorca vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Girona part of?
Mallorca vs Girona is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 45% chance of winning, Girona a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mallorca and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Girona in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Girona (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.68
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.39
1.01
Girona xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.01 for Girona, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.33 PPG, Girona on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Girona in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Girona have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Mallorca or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Girona in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Girona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mallorca's record when hosting Girona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Mallorca 33% BTTS, Girona 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mallorca and 33% for Girona.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Girona in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mallorca's recent matches and 33% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Girona tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Girona in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 4, as Mallorca and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.37 xG and Girona 1.01 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Girona attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 45% | Draw 27% | Girona 28%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Girona 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Girona's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.33 PPG, Girona 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.