Mallorca 0-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Visit Mallorca Estadi to face Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 10 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Visit Mallorca Estadi: 2W 5D 1L from 8 La Liga appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Mallorca against 1.20 for Celta Vigo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 56% versus Celta Vigo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 38% | Celta Vigo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.91 xG and Celta Vigo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.865 / defence 1.137 | Celta Vigo attack 0.976 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.139. Data: 16 Mallorca games / 16 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 26% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 44%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Celta Vigo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Celta Vigo 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 26% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Mallorca 0.91 / Celta Vigo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.865 / def 1.137 | Celta Vigo attack 0.976 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Celta Vigo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo part of?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 26% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mallorca and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Celta Vigo in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.86) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.98x) against Mallorca's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.31
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.17
1.26
Celta Vigo xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.26 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca's recent record stands at 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 8L across 16 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mallorca against 1.00 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 2W 4D 1L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Celta Vigo travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Celta Vigo away?
Celta Vigo's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.43 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Celta Vigo tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 43%, Celta Vigo 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Mallorca) and 43% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 57%; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Celta Vigo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mallorca's recent matches and 29% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Mallorca's recent games and 43% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 17, as Mallorca and Celta Vigo drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.91 xG and Celta Vigo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Celta Vigo attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 26% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 44%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Celta Vigo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.