Levante 2-3 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Sevilla at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Levante's home record at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
Sevilla — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Levante at 1.40 PPG versus Sevilla's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Levante have won 0, Sevilla 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 3–5 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sevilla trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 6% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Sevilla 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 53% | Sevilla 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.01 xG and Sevilla 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.087 / defence 1.353 | Sevilla attack 0.649 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.113. Data: 32 Levante games / 32 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 35% | Draw 31% | Sevilla 34%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Sevilla 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 40% | Sevilla 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 35% | Draw 31% | Sevilla 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Levante 1.01 / Sevilla 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.087 / def 1.353 | Sevilla attack 0.649 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Levante (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sevilla xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Sevilla kick off?
Levante vs Sevilla kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 April 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Sevilla?
Levante 2 - 3 Sevilla.
Where is Levante vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Sevilla part of?
Levante vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 35% chance of winning, Sevilla a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Levante and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Sevilla?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Levante and Sevilla in?
Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levante's attack rating (1.09) and Sevilla's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.21
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Levante xG
Total xG
1.98
0.98
Sevilla xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Levante and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Levante and 0.98 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante's recent record stands at 5W 10D 17L from 32 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 4L across 32 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sevilla by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levante have managed 3W 7D 6L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sevilla's away record stands at 5W 8D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.44 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Sevilla
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 5W 10D 17L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 16W 12D 4L in their last 32 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.00 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Levante or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sevilla in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Sevilla runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Levante go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2026, when Levante won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levante's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
0
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Sevilla have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Levante 2-0 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 44%, Sevilla 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Levante and 6% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sevilla in 50%; Levante have failed to score in 38% of games; Sevilla in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Levante's recent matches and 38% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Levante's recent games and 6% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Levante 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Levante 2-3 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.01 xG and Sevilla 0.98 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sevilla outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.09 / defence 1.35 against Sevilla attack 0.65 / defence 0.86, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 35% | Draw 31% | Sevilla 34%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 53%, Sevilla 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.