Levante 0-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Getafe travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 0W 4D 4L from 8 La Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have recorded 0W 1D 7L from 8 outings — 0.12 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.50 PPG, Getafe 0.12 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Getafe trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Getafe 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 25% | Getafe 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.29 xG and Getafe 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.922 / defence 1.438 | Getafe attack 0.621 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 0.926. Getafe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Levante games / 8 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 46% | Draw 31% | Getafe 23%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Getafe 4.35. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 67% | Getafe 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 46% | Draw 31% | Getafe 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Levante 1.29 / Getafe 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.922 / def 1.438 | Getafe attack 0.621 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.038 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Levante (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Getafe xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Getafe kick off?
Levante vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Getafe?
Levante 0 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Levante vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Getafe part of?
Levante vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 46% chance of winning, Getafe a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levante and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Getafe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Getafe in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Getafe (all comps): 0W-1D-7L in 8 | 0.12 PPG | GF 0.38 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.92) and Getafe's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.20
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Levante xG
Total xG
2.12
0.83
Getafe xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levante and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Levante and 0.83 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Levante have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 4D 4L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe's form line: 0W 1D 7L from 8 games, 0.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.50 PPG, Getafe on 0.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Getafe in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Getafe have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 (0.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Getafe away?
Levante's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.67 PPG; Getafe away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2022, when Getafe won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levante's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
1
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Getafe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Levante 1-0 Getafe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 67%, Getafe 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Levante) and 67% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 33% of games; Getafe in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Levante's recent matches and 33% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Levante's recent games and 67% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Getafe tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Getafe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levante's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante and Getafe finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.29 xG and Getafe 0.83 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levante fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Getafe landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.92 / defence 1.44 against Getafe attack 0.62 / defence 1.35, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 46% | Draw 31% | Getafe 23%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 25%, Getafe 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.50 PPG, Getafe 0.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.