Levante 3-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Levante's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 1.10 PPG, Alaves 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Levante have won 0, Alaves 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Alaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alaves trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 56% versus Alaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 56% | Alaves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.34 xG and Alaves 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.160 / defence 1.425 | Alaves attack 0.625 / defence 1.852. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.132. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.852 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Levante games / 36 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 66% | Draw 20% | Alaves 14%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Alaves 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Levante (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 60% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 66% | Draw 20% | Alaves 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Levante 2.34 / Alaves 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.160 / def 1.425 | Alaves attack 0.625 / def 1.852 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Levante (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Alaves xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Alaves kick off?
Levante vs Alaves kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Alaves?
Levante 3 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Levante vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Alaves part of?
Levante vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 66% chance of winning, Alaves a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Levante and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 0 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Levante and Alaves in?
Levante (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.16x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.85x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
66%
1.51
20%
5.09
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Levante xG
Total xG
3.35
1.01
Alaves xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
10%
10.42
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
1%
74.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Levante and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Levante and 1.01 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante's recent record stands at 6W 11D 19L from 36 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 21L across 36 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.81 PPG, Alaves on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Levante have managed 4W 7D 7L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 1W 3D 14L across 18 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.83 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Alaves in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 6W 11D 19L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while Alaves have gone 8W 7D 21L in their last 36 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Alaves away?
Levante's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.06 PPG; Alaves away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Levante 2-0 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 50%, Alaves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 61% (Alaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 33% of games; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levante's recent matches and 44% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Levante's matches and 61% of Alaves's.
Do Levante and Alaves tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alaves in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Alaves 3-1 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 2.34 xG and Alaves 1.01 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.16 / defence 1.43 against Alaves attack 0.62 / defence 1.85, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 66% | Draw 20% | Alaves 14%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 56%, Alaves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.81 PPG, Alaves 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.