Leganes 0-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leganes at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leganes host Mallorca at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in La Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Leganes — All Games: 1W 2D 0L from 3 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Leganes have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Leganes have the edge — a 0.57 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leganes register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Mallorca in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Leganes in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 67% versus Mallorca 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Leganes 33% | Mallorca 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.30 xG and Mallorca 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.952 / defence 1.143 | Mallorca attack 0.847 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.005. Data: 3 Leganes games / 41 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 42% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 26%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Mallorca 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leganes at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leganes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Leganes 67% | Mallorca 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 42% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Leganes 1.30 / Mallorca 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.952 / def 1.143 | Mallorca attack 0.847 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Leganes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mallorca xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Mallorca kick off?
Leganes vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Mallorca?
Leganes 0 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Leganes vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Mallorca part of?
Leganes vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 42% chance of winning, Mallorca a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leganes and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leganes and Mallorca in?
Leganes (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leganes's attack rating (0.95) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.15
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.27
0.97
Mallorca xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Leganes and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Leganes and 0.97 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leganes's recent record stands at 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Leganes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 1L across 3 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leganes by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Leganes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Leganes have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Leganes or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leganes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mallorca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leganes and Mallorca runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
1
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Mallorca?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Mallorca have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Mallorca 0-0 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leganes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 67%, Mallorca 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Leganes and 0% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mallorca in 33%; Leganes have failed to score in 33% of games; Mallorca in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Leganes's recent matches and 33% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Leganes's recent games and 0% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Leganes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Leganes 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.30 xG and Mallorca 0.97 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leganes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 42% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 26%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 33%, Mallorca 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Leganes arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leganes managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.