Las Palmas 1-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Las Palmas face Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Villarreal travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Las Palmas have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Las Palmas at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Villarreal — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Villarreal have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Las Palmas 1.40 PPG, Villarreal 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Las Palmas's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Las Palmas have won 2, Villarreal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2024, ended Las Palmas 1–3 Villarreal — a Villarreal win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Las Palmas 52% and Villarreal 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 40% | Villarreal 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Las Palmas surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Villarreal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.28 xG and Villarreal 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.878 / defence 1.149 | Villarreal attack 1.197 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.121. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 60 games and Villarreal's last 60.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 32% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 43%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.17 | Draw 4.01 | Villarreal 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Las Palmas's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 70% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 32% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Las Palmas 1.28 / Villarreal 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.878 / def 1.149 | Villarreal attack 1.197 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Villarreal xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Villarreal kick off?
Las Palmas vs Villarreal kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Las Palmas 1 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Las Palmas vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Villarreal part of?
Las Palmas vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 32% chance of winning, Villarreal a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Las Palmas and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Las Palmas vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.88x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 60 games and Villarreal's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
32%
3.17
25%
4.01
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.82
1.54
Villarreal xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.54 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 15D 29L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 24W 18D 18L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Las Palmas.
Venue Form
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (9W 10D 11L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 12W 9D 9L from their last 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Las Palmas are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.82 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 78%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
Las Palmas (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Las Palmas vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 16W 15D 29L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 24W 18D 18L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.23 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jan 2024, when Las Palmas won Las Palmas 3-0 Villarreal.
Las Palmas's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Villarreal?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 2, Villarreal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Las Palmas 1-2 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Las Palmas at 57%, Villarreal at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Las Palmas) and 57% (Villarreal).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Villarreal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Las Palmas's games and 77% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Las Palmas and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Las Palmas's recent games and 57% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Villarreal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 80% of Villarreal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Las Palmas 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Las Palmas 1-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.28 xG and Villarreal 1.54 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Villarreal attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 32% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 43%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Villarreal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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