Las Palmas 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 44%, yet in-form Alaves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Las Palmas have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Las Palmas are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alaves (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Alaves have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Las Palmas, 0 for Alaves and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Las Palmas 1–0 Alaves — a Las Palmas win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 38% versus Alaves 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 30% | Alaves 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.22 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.728 / defence 1.155 | Alaves attack 0.665 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.140. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Alaves's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 37 games and Alaves's last 37.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 29% | Alaves 26%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.27 | Draw 3.40 | Alaves 3.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Las Palmas as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 40% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 38 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 29% | Alaves 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Las Palmas 1.22 / Alaves 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.728 / def 1.155 | Alaves attack 0.665 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Alaves xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Alaves kick off?
Las Palmas vs Alaves kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Las Palmas 1 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Las Palmas vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Alaves part of?
Las Palmas vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 38) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 44% chance of winning, Alaves a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Las Palmas and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Las Palmas vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.73x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.67x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 37 games and Alaves's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.40
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.10
0.88
Alaves xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.88 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 9D 18L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Alaves's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.22 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 18 home games (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 3W 5D 10L from their last 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
Las Palmas (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Las Palmas vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Alaves in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 9D 18L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Alaves have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Alaves away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.28 PPG; Alaves away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Las Palmas and Alaves, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Alaves?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 1, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Las Palmas 2-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 44%, Alaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Las Palmas and 33% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 33% of games; Alaves in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 33% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Las Palmas's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 61% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.22 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Alaves attack 0.67 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 44% | Draw 29% | Alaves 26%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 30%, Alaves 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.05 PPG, Alaves 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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