Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Granada CF welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada CF have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Granada CF at 0.60 PPG versus Real Sociedad's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Granada CF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Real Sociedad in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Real Sociedad have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Granada CF's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 3–5 with Real Sociedad winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Sociedad have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Granada CF in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 58% versus Real Sociedad 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 42% | Real Sociedad 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 0.90 xG and Real Sociedad 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.759 / defence 1.257 | Real Sociedad attack 1.122 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.102. Granada CF's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Granada CF games / 65 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 19% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 51%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Real Sociedad 1.96. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Granada CF 70% | Real Sociedad 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 19% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Granada CF 0.90 / Real Sociedad 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.759 / def 1.257 | Real Sociedad attack 1.122 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Real Sociedad xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Granada CF vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Granada CF 2 - 3 Real Sociedad.
Where is Granada CF vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Real Sociedad part of?
Granada CF vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 19% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Granada CF and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Sociedad?
Record (3 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 3W.
What form are Granada CF and Real Sociedad in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.76x the league average against Real Sociedad's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
19%
5.13
30%
3.33
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.45
1.55
Real Sociedad xG
5.13
19%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
24.25
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.55 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Granada CF come into this having played 26 games, going 2W 8D 16L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Granada CF's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 8D 16L in their last 26 games (0.54 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.92 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Real Sociedad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Granada CF's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
0
Draws
4
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Sociedad?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Real Sociedad have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 69%, Real Sociedad at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Granada CF) and 62% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Granada CF's games and 62% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Granada CF's recent games and 62% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Granada CF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Granada CF 2-3 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 0.90 xG and Real Sociedad 1.55 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Granada CF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Real Sociedad attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 26/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 19% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 51%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 42%, Real Sociedad 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.54. Form held, and they took the win. Granada CF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.