Granada CF 1-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Athletic Club at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Athletic Club encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Granada CF and Athletic Club meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.

Current Form

Granada CF's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Granada CF have posted 1W 3D 3L from their last 7 home games — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Athletic Club (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Athletic Club's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Athletic Club arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Granada CF edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2022, ended Granada CF 1–0 Athletic Club — a Granada CF win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Granada CF — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Athletic Club — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 67% versus Athletic Club 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 53% | Athletic Club 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.23 xG and Athletic Club 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.966 / defence 1.437 | Athletic Club attack 0.976 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.147. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.437 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Athletic Club's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 15 games and Athletic Club's last 53.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 27% | Draw 28% | Athletic Club 44%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.65 | Draw 3.54 | Athletic Club 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Granada CF's last 7 home games and Athletic Club's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Granada CF 86% (last 7 home games) | Athletic Club 40% (last 10 away games).

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