Girona 2-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Athletic Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Athletic Club meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Athletic Club have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Athletic Club are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 83% versus Athletic Club 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 50% | Athletic Club 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.59 xG and Athletic Club 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.962 / defence 1.421 | Athletic Club attack 1.256 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.143. Athletic Club have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Girona games / 50 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 30% | Draw 21% | Athletic Club 48%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Athletic Club 2.08. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 83% | Athletic Club 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 30% | Draw 21% | Athletic Club 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Girona 1.59 / Athletic Club 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.962 / def 1.421 | Athletic Club attack 1.256 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Girona xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Athletic Club xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Athletic Club kick off?
Girona vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Athletic Club?
Girona 2 - 1 Athletic Club.
Where is Girona vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Athletic Club part of?
Girona vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 30% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 48% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Girona and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Athletic Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Athletic Club in?
Girona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.96) and Athletic Club's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (1.26x) against Girona's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
30%
3.30
21%
4.69
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Girona xG
Total xG
3.63
2.04
Athletic Club xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
13%
7.69
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
4%
25.39
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Girona and 2.04 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 4D 6L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Athletic Club sit at 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Girona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Girona's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Athletic Club have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.00 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Girona or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won 3-0 on 8 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
2
Draws
2
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Athletic Club?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Athletic Club have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Girona 3-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Athletic Club?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Girona, 60% for Athletic Club — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Girona and 80% for Athletic Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Athletic Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Girona's games and 60% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Girona's matches and 80% of Athletic Club's.
Do Girona and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Athletic Club 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.59 xG and Athletic Club 2.04 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Athletic Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.96 / defence 1.42 against Athletic Club attack 1.26 / defence 1.17, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 30% | Draw 21% | Athletic Club 48%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 50%, Athletic Club 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Girona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.