Espanyol 4-3 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Espanyol at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Espanyol vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Levante travel to RCDE Stadium to take on Espanyol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 5W 2D 1L from 8 La Liga appearances (2.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RCDE Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Levante — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante away from home this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Espanyol are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Espanyol trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Levante trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 38% versus Levante 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Espanyol 31% | Levante 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.72 xG and Levante 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 1.012 / defence 0.795 | Levante attack 0.799 / defence 1.707. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.125. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.707 — this is suppressing Espanyol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Espanyol's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Espanyol games / 16 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 61% | Draw 25% | Levante 14%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Espanyol (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Espanyol as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Espanyol 38% | Levante 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 61% | Draw 25% | Levante 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Espanyol 1.72 / Levante 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 1.012 / def 0.795 | Levante attack 0.799 / def 1.707 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Levante xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Levante kick off?
Espanyol vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Levante?
Espanyol 4 - 3 Levante.
Where is Espanyol vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Levante part of?
Espanyol vs Levante is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 61% chance of winning, Levante a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Espanyol and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Levante in?
Espanyol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 1.01x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.02
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.43
0.71
Levante xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
38.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.71 for Levante, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 5W 5D 6L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante's form line: 0W 8D 8L from 16 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Espanyol are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Venue Form
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 2.12 PPG from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levante have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 0.81 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Levante in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 8D 8L in their last 16 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Levante away?
Espanyol's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 2.12 PPG; Levante away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Levante in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Espanyol's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Espanyol
3
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 1, Levante have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Espanyol 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Levante?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 38%, Levante 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Espanyol) and 50% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Levante in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Espanyol's recent matches and 62% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Espanyol's recent games and 50% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Levante tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Levante in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Levante 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Levante 4-3 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.72 xG and Levante 0.71 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levante outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Levante attack 0.80 / defence 1.71, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 61% | Draw 25% | Levante 14%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 31%, Levante 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.