Elche 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 42%, yet in-form Valencia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Elche vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Elche welcome Valencia to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Elche — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Elche's home record at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Elche are significantly better at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Valencia — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Valencia have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Elche.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Valencia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Elche in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Elche 70% and Valencia 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 60% | Valencia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.46 xG and Valencia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.961 / defence 1.154 | Valencia attack 0.954 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.134. Data: 30 Elche games / 68 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 42% | Draw 26% | Valencia 32%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Valencia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valencia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Elche 70% | Valencia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 42% | Draw 26% | Valencia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Elche 1.46 / Valencia 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.961 / def 1.154 | Valencia attack 0.954 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Elche (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Valencia xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Valencia kick off?
Elche vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Valencia?
Elche 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Elche vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Valencia part of?
Elche vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 42% chance of winning, Valencia a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Elche and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Valencia?
Record (5 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 2 | Valencia 3W.
What form are Elche and Valencia in?
Elche (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Valencia (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Elche's attack at 0.96x the league average against Valencia's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.89
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Elche xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
Valencia xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Elche and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Elche and 1.25 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Elche come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 11D 13L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 0.97 PPG, Valencia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Elche's home form reads 6W 7D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Elche are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Elche are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Valencia in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 6W 11D 13L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Valencia have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Valencia away?
Elche's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.67 PPG; Valencia away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Elche's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Elche
2
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Valencia?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Valencia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Elche 1-0 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 60%, Valencia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Elche) and 53% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valencia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Elche's recent matches and 47% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Elche's matches and 53% of Valencia's.
Do Elche and Valencia tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valencia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.46 xG and Valencia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Valencia attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 42% | Draw 26% | Valencia 32%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 60%, Valencia 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.97 PPG, Valencia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.